Sometimes two days is just too much time to wait. At least that’s the case for Lady Gaga and her new single “Born This Way.” The song had been scheduled for debut at Sunday’s Grammy Awards at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, but earlier this week Gaga tweeted that she “can’t wait any longer” and will release the song today.
Nevertheless, Sunday should be a big day for Gaga. She’s up for six Grammys, trailing only Eminem and Bruno Mars. Although “Born This Way” will be burning up bandwidth all weekend long, the ceremony will mark the first performance of the title track to the diva’s new album, due out in May.
The reaction to “Born This Way” — both the recording and the live version at the Grammys — could have far-reaching business implications for Gaga. If the song is anywhere near as well-received as “Bad Romance” or “Poker Face,” it’s a great omen for the album. And, if the album can replicate the success of The Fame, Gaga could be poised to take her business game to an even higher level in 2011.
By our estimates, Gaga earned $62 million last year, just $1 million behind sixth-ranked Jay-Z among the top-earning musicians. Last month I wrote that she would top $100 million in 2011, a prediction predicated on the success of Born This Way. The reason: another boffo album reception could allow her to make the transition from an arena act playing 20,000-seat venues to an artist capable of selling out 80,000-seat football stadiums.
Gaga’s manager, the savvy Troy Carter, has gone on record saying his goal is to move 30 million units of Born This Way worldwide. That’s a very bold target, more than twice the number of copies sold by Gaga’s debut. But if every one of Gaga’s 28 million Facebook fans (second only to Michael Jackson) buys the album, or buys a few of her songs on iTunes, she’d be pretty close.
In any case, Gaga doesn’t need to sell 30 million copies to lure droves of people to see her perform in concert. As long as Born This Way is reasonably compelling, she’ll have no trouble drawing throngs of “little monsters” to her shows — and stacking up somewhere in the neighborhood of $100 million over the next twelve months.
But she’ll have to start with a knockout performance this weekend. And knowing Gaga, there’s little doubt that she’ll deliver.
